US prepares for 2012 presidential campaigning

President Barack Obama recently signed his papers to run as the presidential candidate on the Democratic ticket, making him the first candidate of the 2012 campaign. On the other side of the aisle, several Republican politicians have opened up exploratory committees to test the waters of a possible presidential run. Campaigns have begun asking for donation money, and several ads are already being circulated.

Time to get this show on the road.

For many of us, the 2008 election was the first time we became politically aware. It was one of the defining moments of our generation. Will the 2012 election be as exciting as it was last time?

This election will be a referendum on whether or not Obama has been doing a good job as commander-in-chief. After riding a torrent wave of popular support into the oval office, Obama has struggled with implementing his policies as president. After the 2010 midterm elections, which saw Republican politicians win big in the House and in several state governments, Obama might now have to contend with a voter base that may not agree with his politics.

This election also brings numerous questions. Will young people who voted in record high numbers in the last election come to the polls? Will election turnout in general be as big as it was last time?

The thinning of the herd of Republican presidential candidates will take place in the upcoming months. The four serious frontrunners at the moment are former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney, former Minnesota governor Tim Pawlenty, former Senator of Pennsylvania Rick Santorum and former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich.

Barring any unforeseen circumstances, I think it's safe to predict Mitt Romney as the favorite for the Republican presidential nomination. He's the one serious candidate of the current crop, and I think his time is due for the candidacy.

If the election were to be held today, Obama would win. In a recent Pew poll, 47 percent of Americans would vote for Obama over a generic Republican. Obama maintains a 58 percent likability rating, and 51 percent approve of the job that he is doing.

The economy will be the single defining issue of the campaign. It will be what makes or breaks Obama's re-election bid. Economic woes torpedoed George Bush Sr.'s re-election in 1992, as well as Jimmy Carter's re-election in 1980. Let's not forget Obama himself was the recipient of public concerns over the economy. After the economy crashed in the late summer of 2008, he rose up in the polls, casting an insurmountable lead over John McCain that he held all the way to the election.

Added to economic difficulties, there might also be a problem with Obama's seemingly lackadaisical efforts to pass his policies. His lack of forcefulness on several issues he campaigned on might leave a lot of liberals at home. He did get rid of DADT, attempted to broker a meaningful relationship with the Arab world and set a timetable for the removal of troops in Iraq, so his track record is still respectable. But it's far from perfect.

The worst thing about these elections, and I'm sure we can all agree on this, is the inane sideshows they degenerate into. The policies (you know, the things that actually matter) take a back seat to whatever dirt each side tries to muck up. The media has become notorious at stretching the most meaningless incidents into large spectacles.

As the 2012 election looms, everyone needs to stay informed on what's happening. Every single election is important in a democracy, because it remains the easiest way the average citizen can show his or her discontent with the way things are running.