Experts say climate change will kill 100 million by 2030
Published: Saturday, September 29, 2012
Updated: Saturday, September 29, 2012 21:09
Climate change will kill an estimated 100 million people by 2030 and cost the global economy 3.2 percent of its potential output annually according to a report from humanitarian organization, DARA.
DARA is based in Spain and the report, published in New York on Wednesday, was commissioned by 20 governments.
Global average temperatures have been rising due to the "greenhouse" effect, where ozone harming gas emissions are being trapped within the Earth's atmosphere.
The effects on the planet, such as melting ice caps, extreme weather, drought and rising sea levels, will threaten populations and livelihoods, said the report.
Currently, DARA estimates that about there are five million deaths a year. Roughly 4.5 million are "carbon economy deaths due mainly to air pollution.
The remainder are due to hunger and communicable diseases, both of which are aggravated by climate change.
DARA says that if current patterns continue, deaths will increase to six million a year by 2030. More than 90 percent of those deaths will occur in developing countries.
“Developing countries are the most vulnerable because they lack the resources and information that wealthier nations have," said DePaul alum Jacob Sabolo.
“In 2010, the Sahel region in Africa was struck by one of the worst droughts the people have yet seen. An estimated 350,000 people faced starvation, and more than a million were at risk of famine. Another drought struck earlier this year."
Responding to the DARA's report, Oxfam International said the costs of political inaction on climate were "staggering".
"The losses to agriculture and fisheries alone could amount to more than $500 billion per year by 2030, heavily focused in the poorest countries where millions depend on these sectors to make a living," Oxfam's executive director, Jeremy Hobbs, told Reuters.
The "Climate Vulnerability report" based their calculations on findings from 184 countries in 2010 and 2030. It was commissioned by the Climate Vulnerable Forum, a partnership of 20 developing countries threatened by climate change.
However, not everyone is convinced and satisfied with the new report from a relatively unknown organization.
"I feel that it was used global warming to scare people into taking action," said Sabolo, who was president of Oxfam during his time at DePaul.
"But 90 million of the deaths that they projected would be caused by non-global warming related illnesses such as indoor smoke and air pollution. While air pollution certainly does have an affect on global warming, they are two different things."
The change of climate will effect the worldwide economy, as well as its population. Already, it is said that the climate change is costing the global economy a potential 1.6 percent of annual output, which adds up to a total $1.2 trillion a year.
DARA warns that the loss could double to 3.2 percent by 2030 if the global temperature continues to rise.
Developing nations will also be the hardest hit by this issue, DARA reports that they could see an 11 percent loss in the Gross Domestic Product of each nation by 2030.
However, even the biggest and most rapidly developing economies will be hit. Both the United States and China could see a 2.1 percent reduction in their individual GDPs by 2030.
Although the cause of this year's drought in the United States has not been confirmed to be entirely caused by global warming, it has already had a negative effect on food production, and will continue to cause an increase in prices.
India could experience a loss of potential output of mor than 5 percent.
Temperatures have already risen by about 1.5 degrees Fahrenheit since 1880, according to the National Geographic.
And in 2010, almost 200 nations agreed that it was necessary to limit the global average temperature rise to under 3.6 degrees in order to avoid dangerous impacts from climate change.
But climate scientists have warned that burning fossil fuels are increasing greenhouse gas emissions and making it harder to stay below the 35 degree limit.