It all comes down to the swing states

Presidential Election fever may have skipped Illinois voters this cycle, but campaign symptoms grow stronger as both candidates spread their messages like an epidemic across sought-after battleground or “swing” states.

In 2008, there were six swing states in play, while the 2004 campaign had 11 states. For 2012, the number ranges from nine to 12, depending on where you look. 

The New York Times included nine battleground states in its list, consisting of Colorado, Florida, Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Wisconsin, while USA Today included the same nine with the addition of New Mexico, North Carolina and Michigan. 

American Political Journalism Organization Politico decided to exclude Michigan from the list and refers to New Mexico, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin as “soft” swing states. Political news aggregator Real Clear Politics goes even further by including Maine, Minnesota, New Jersey, Oregon, Georgia, Indiana, South Carolina and Montana to the list of potential swing states.

Regardless of whether you see the number of toss-ups as being nine, 12 or 20, there is no question that candidates will wage an all out war—despite the battle being over and won in Illinois. This list of states will act as the front lines in the next week as President Obama and Governor Romney vie for the precious number of 270 electoral college votes needed to win the American presidency.

OHIO (18 electoral votes)

Some consider Ohio to be the most important swing state of the bunch, with 18 electoral votes up for grabs. And rightfully so—this state has accurately picked winning presidential candidates in the last 12 elections. The last candidate to win the election, but lose Ohio, was John F. Kennedy in 1960. While Obama’s intense campaigning gave him a persistent lead, major parts of the state remains conservative.

OHIO OUTCOME IN PREVIOUS ELECTIONS

(year/candidate/margin of victory)

2008 OBAMA 4.54%

2004 BUSH 2.11%

2000 BUSH 3.51%

OHIO CONTRIBUTIONS TO CANDIDATES (CREDIT: Center for Responsive Politics)

Obama: $3,774,717

Romney: $8,255,919

OHIO AD SPENDING BY CANDIDATE (National Journal)

(Organization/total ad spending/week ending 10.29.12)

Obama for America / $63,238,764 / $6,195,226

Romney for President / $37,664,782 / $3542275

DNC / 0 / 0

RNC / $7,547,297 / $1,646,196

OHIO VOTER DEMOGRAPHICS

unemployment= 7.3 percent

median income=$45,090

COLORADO (9 electoral votes)

Obama’s big victory in Colorado during the 2008 presidential election marks the second time in the past 11 election cycles that CO voters went blue. The first was to Bill Clinton in 1992. With Latino voter turnout being the key factor, current polls show Obama with a slight lead over Romney. Romney must appeal to independents and women voters, who sealed Democratic wins for Senate and governor races in 2010.

COLORADO OUTCOME IN PREVIOUS ELECTIONS

(year/candidate/margin of victory)

2008 OBAMA 8.95%

2004 BUSH 4.67%

2000 BUSH 8.36%

COLORADO CONTRIBUTIONS TO CANDIDATES

(CREDIT: Center for Responsive Politics)

Obama: $5,384,138

Romney: $6,038,925

OHIO AD SPENDING BY CANDIDATE (National Journal)

(Organization/total ad spending/week ending 10.29.12)

Obama for America / $26,258,473 / $2,047,111

Romney for President / $15,452,383 / $1,355,152

DNC / 0 / 0

RNC / $1,548,810 / $180,000**last contribution 8/27/12

COLORADO VOTER DEMOGRAPHICS

unemployment= 8 percent

median income= $54,046

FLORIDA (29 electoral votes)

Recent polls show a very close race in this infamous battleground state. This state may face unprecedented amounts of advertising from both candidates and could be Romney’s best shot at victory. Obama may have hope if Romney fails to win the votes of Hispanic voters, particularly Puerto Ricans in Central Florida and Cuban Americans in Southern Florida.

FLORIDA OUTCOME IN PREVIOUS ELECTIONS

(year/candidate/margin of victory)

2008 OBAMA 2.82%

2004 BUSH 5.01%

2000 BUSH 0.01%

FLORIDA CONTRIBUTIONS TO CANDIDATES(CREDIT: Center for Responsive Politics)

Obama: $11,890,620

Romney: $23,521,375

FLORIDA AD SPENDING BY CANDIDATE (National Journal)

(Organization/total ad spending/week ending 10.29.12)

Obama for America / $60,262,391 / est. 5.5 mil

Romney for President / $39,058,549 / est. 4.5 mil

DNC / 0 / 0

RNC / 0/0

OHIO VOTER DEMOGRAPHICS

unemployment= 7.3 percent

median income= $45,090

IOWA (6 electoral votes)

While once a solid Republican state, Iowa went to the Democrats in five of the last six elections. But in this election cycle, Iowa might pose a challenge to Pres. Obama as Romney’s consistent campaigning kept Obama’s poll ratings lower than other nearby states. Obama won Iowa in 2008 by 10 points and recent polls show his current lead as less than half that.